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market analysis

The US dollar index fluctuates downward, European and American PMI data is coming

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar index fluctuates and goes down, and European and American PMI data is zeizao.cning." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday, the US dollar index fell slightly, and the US dollar index performed weakly recently, falling 0.6% on Wednesday, losing the 100 integer mark, and the intraday low hit a new low of 99.33 in the past two weeks. Current market sentiment shows obvious characteristics of caution. On the one hand, geopolitical risks continue to ferment, especially the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East has exacerbated the market's risk aversion; on the other hand, the domestic political deadlock in the United States and the uncertainty of the tax reform bill have further increased market volatility. This trading day will be released on PMI data in European and American countries in May, changes in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States, and the total annualized number of existing home sales in April. Investors need to pay attention to it. In addition, we will continue to pay attention to the international trade situation, geopolitical situation and news related to the G7 meeting, and pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials.

Analysis of major currencies

United States dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.48, down 0.11% during the day. Since the beginning of this week, the dollar has paid the price for the volatility of Trump's administration's policies, which is currently facing difficulties in many aspects. Hawkish rhetoric by Fed officials has significantly lowered market expectations for a recent rate cut, which provides support from the dollar to some extent. However, the ongoing political uncertainty and geopolitical risks put pressure on the US dollar, forming a delicate balance. It can be observed from the daily chart of the US dollar index that the price is in a key technical position. After experiencing a sharp decline in the previous period, DXY has now gained some support near the 99.20 area. Previously, the index hit a low of 97.9229 and then launched a rebound, but recently fell back under pressure. In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line is -0.2228 and the DEA lineAt -0.3051, the MACD value is 0.1644, the bar chart is red, but the cylinder height is shrinking, which may indicate that the kinetic energy is weakening.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1340, up 0.11% during the day. In recent trading days, the dollar bulls have been on the defensive position, and the dollar against the yen seems to have driven this trend to a large extent. Last night, the dollar suffered another push against the yen after a sharp rise in bond yields due to poor long-term bond auctions, and the dollar suffered another decline against the yen.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3428, up 0.04% during the day. Although the rise in the UK's April inflation data exceeded expectations triggered concerns about the Bank of England's policy turn, the US dollar continued to be under pressure due to a downgrade of the sovereign rating, providing support for the pound. The market is currently reevaluating the differentiation of policy paths between Britain and the United States. With the interweaving of long and short factors, the pound may maintain a high fluctuation in the short term. Technically, momentum remains bullish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which breaks through the latest high of 60 and has plenty of room to go from overbought. That is, the first key resistance level for GBP/USD will be 1.3468, followed by 1.35. If broken, the next target will be the high of 1.3642 on February 18, 2022. Conversely, if GBP/USD falls below 1.340, the next support will be 1.3350, followed by 1.3300. The key support is below the latter, at 1.3250, 1.3200, and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3141.

Summary of news in the foreign exchange market

1. The weak 20-year U.S. bonds and foreign exchange fell, and the value of US bonds and foreign exchange fell. After the results of weak demand for US 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds and foreign exchange fell one after another. Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos sees the market's reaction as a clear signal of "foreign buyers collectively avoiding U.S. bond assets." He noted that foreign investors "are no longer willing to fund the U.S. government at current prices." The rise in financing costs is putting pressure on the stock market. Unless there is a major adjustment in the fiscal settlement bill proposed by the Republican Party, the value of U.S. bonds will have to "sharply decline" to re-attract foreign investors. Affected by this, the S&P 500 index's decline expanded to 1.5% in the day, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.607%.The highest level since February 13, with the U.S. dollar index falling 0.5%.

2. Source: The EU prepares a trade proposal for the United States to promote negotiations

According to foreign media reports, the EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the United States. This move is intended to inject momentum into negotiations with the Trump administration. The outside world is still skeptical about whether a transatlantic agreement can be reached. According to people familiar with the matter, the new document contains proposals that take into account U.S. interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security, and gradually reducing tariffs on non-sensitive agricultural and industrial products from both sides to zero. The document, submitted to officials in Washington earlier this week, also outlines mutual investments and strategic procurement in the fields of energy, artificial intelligence and digital connectivity, people familiar with the matter said. The EU's goal is to cooperate with the United States and seek a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement, people familiar with the matter said. One of the people familiar with the matter said the two sides are still studying each other and the European zeizao.cnmission may need to be authorized by member states to begin formal negotiations.

3. The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said it had reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap

According to foreign media reports, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Johnson said that Republicans have reached an agreement to raise state and local tax (SALT) relief to $40,000, which means solving one of the last few issues hindering Trump's economic bill. "This is the agreement we reached, and I think the SALT caucus, as they claim, isn't everything they want, but I think they know it's a huge improvement for their constituents, which gives them a lot to go home and talk about," Johnson said Wednesday in an answer to a question about increasing the deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 over a 10-year period. According to a person familiar with the matter, the $40,000 SALT limit will be phased out for people who earn more than $500,000 a year.

4. ECB warns that US asset concerns trigger a ripple effect

The ECB warns that investors' concerns about U.S. asset risks have increased after Trump's tariffs, which may further impact the global financial system. In its Financial Stability Assessment, the ECB stated that after the April trade statement, the "unconventional shift" of investors from traditional havens such as the US dollar and U.S. bonds may herald a "fundamental institutional change", which increases the risk of "a widespread shift in global capital flows" and "may have a profound impact on the global financial system." The bank said the unpredictability of U.S. policy seems to lead investors to higher risk premiums for U.S. assets, and may also shake people's confidence in the US dollar as a global reserve currency and U.S. sovereign bonds as a safe-haven asset. Policymakers also pointed out that asset valuations are still at high levels, especially after Trump's policy pullback triggered a market rebound. In addition, concentrated investment in US technology stocks means that the market is still susceptible to sudden volatility. "Investors may underestimate the possibility and impact of adverse scenarios, especially becauseThe proliferation of uncertainty makes tail risks more prone to manifestation. ”

5. Former Bank of Japan member: The window for raising interest rates is narrowing

Former Bank of Japan zeizao.cnmittee member Shirai Hayuri said that if the bank hopes to raise interest rates further, it may need to take action within this year, otherwise the window period will be closed. Japan's weak domestic demand has insufficient reasons for hikes. If inflation falls below the central bank's 2% target, hikes will be more difficult to advance. She said: "The Bank of Japan may want to promote policy normalization in time as much as possible, even if it can only slightly correct the excessive depreciation of the yen. However, Japan's economy is too weak, and fragile domestic demand is incompatible with the path of interest rate hikes. "Although Japan's wage growth shows positive signals, continuous inflation suppresses household spending. The latest government data shows that private consumption remained flat in January-March. The central bank expects consumption inflation to slow below 2% in the next fiscal year and the years afterwards from April 2026. Shirai believes that this will zeizao.cnplicate the decision to raise further interest rates. Growth headwinds are also intensifying. Japan faces the risk of a technical recession after the economic contraction in the first quarter. Exports to the United States fell for the first time in four months, highlighting the impact of high tariffs.

Institutional View

1. Dutch International: As soon as the UK inflation data came out, the focus turned to the central government August interest rate decisions

Netherland International economist James Smith said in a report that the UK's April inflation data zeizao.cnpletely wiped out the Bank of England's hopes of a rate cut in June, but the survey showed that pricing power is weakening and there is still a possibility of rate cuts in August. April CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in March. Crucially, service industry inflation - part of the inflation basket that the Bank of England cares most - soared from 4.7% to 5.4%. Smith said: "This is a much bigger rebound than we or the central bank expects." "However, part of the rise is based on road taxes and Easter times, which the Bank of England may ignore. Services inflation should fall back to 4.5% in the summer, which is enough to cut interest rates in August.

2. Deutsche Bank: Investors are worried about fiscal balance in countries outside the United States

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid wrote that the United States is not the only country that has caused fiscal concerns. He said, Japan's 20-year bond auction demand fell to its lowest level in 10 years. Reid noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and the United Kingdom is currently 100% and Japan is 250%, zeizao.cnpared with 41%, 42% and 113% in those countries when Japan issued 30-year sovereign bonds in 1999. "We have never experienced a bond market with more than 30-year maturity in the context of such high global debt levels." This is an unknown area. "He said bond supply will increase in the next few years," and "so the long-term market urgently needs inflation to be controlled. ”

3. Morgan Stanley: Despite high inflation in April, the Bank of England is expected to stick to loose policies

BrunaS, an analyst at Morgan StanleyKarica said in a report that despite higher-than-expected inflation in the UK in April, the Bank of England may stick to its loose policy route. She said the 3.5% annual CPI increase was not a particularly big hit because it was driven by one-time administrative and tourism spending. However, even if inflation may be more moderate in May and the June job market report will show a significant decline in wage growth, it seems unlikely that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in June. "Before August, a lot of things could happen," Skarica said, including a drop in inflation expectations. She said: "We still expect interest rates to be lowered and will be continuously lowered to 3.25% by the end of the year."

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market analysis

The US dollar index fluctuates downward, European and American PMI data is coming

Analysis of major currencies

2. Source: The EU prepares a trade proposal for the United States to promote negotiations

3. The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said it had reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap

4. ECB warns that US asset concerns trigger a ripple effect

5. Former Bank of Japan member: The window for raising interest rates is narrowing

Institutional View

1. Dutch International: As soon as the UK inflation data came out, the focus turned to the central government August interest rate decisions

2. Deutsche Bank: Investors are worried about fiscal balance in countries outside the United States

3. Morgan Stanley: Despite high inflation in April, the Bank of England is expected to stick to loose policies

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market analysis

The US dollar index fluctuates downward, European and American PMI data is coming

Analysis of major currencies

2. Source: The EU prepares a trade proposal for the United States to promote negotiations

3. The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said it had reached an agreement on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap

4. ECB warns that US asset concerns trigger a ripple effect

5. Former Bank of Japan member: The window for raising interest rates is narrowing

Institutional View

1. Dutch International: As soon as the UK inflation data came out, the focus turned to the central government August interest rate decisions

2. Deutsche Bank: Investors are worried about fiscal balance in countries outside the United States

3. Morgan Stanley: Despite high inflation in April, the Bank of England is expected to stick to loose policies

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason