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Ukraine's attack on Russian military airports suffered heavy losses, and whether peace talks can ease the situation has become the focus

Wonderful introduction:

Don't learn to be sad in the years of youth, what zeizao.cnes and goes cannot withstand the passing time. What I promise you may not be the end of the world. Do you remember that the ice blue that has not been asleep in the night is like the romance swallowed by purple jasmine, but the road is far away and people have not returned, where can the love be lost?

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Ukraine's attack on Russian military airports suffered heavy losses, and whether the peace talks can ease the situation has become the focus." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

On June 1, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to be tense. Ukrainian drones attacked several Russian military airports, including the Bellaya military base in eastern Siberia. More than 40 aircraft were damaged and losses were about US$2 billion. This is the first time that a military base in Siberia was attacked by drones, and Murmansk Oblast was also attacked by drones on the same day.

On the same day, the second round of ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were scheduled to be held in Istanbul on June 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky put forward three major demands: the zeizao.cnplete ceasefire, the release of prisoners of war, and the repatriation of kidnapped children. He also plans to submit a peace roadmap starting with a 30-day ceasefire during the talks. The core conditions are significantly different from Russia's claims. The United States said it had not learned about Ukraine's attack in advance, and the Russian and American foreign ministers spoke on a phone call to discuss the negotiation plan. The Hungarian Prime Minister revealed that his mediation in 2024 was unsuccessful, and the two sides had obvious differences on the timing of the ceasefire.

The current situation is zeizao.cnplex, the prospects for peace talks are unclear, and market risk aversion sentiment and economic data (such as this week's employment report and central bank interest rate resolution) have become the new focus.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.648 on the day, and fell to 99.102 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.417. Looking back at the market performance last Friday, the price fluctuated in the early trading period, and then the price soared again, but from the perspective of position, the price was still suppressed at the four-hour resistance position. At the same time, the price continued to be under pressure after the US session. Finally, the daily and weekly lines closed at the close, but the weekly prices left a long lead.

From the multi-period analysis, weekly levelThe price is suppressed in the 101.10 area resistance, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 99.80 as time goes by. Currently, the price continues to be under pressure in the daily resistance linear line, so it is still treated as short-term. At the same time, the price on the four-hour price is currently under the passage of time. At present, we need to focus on the resistance in the range of 99.40-50. The price is currently under multi-cycle resistance, so we continue to pay attention to pressure in the future, and pay attention to the 98.70 regional support below. Once it breaks down, we will continue to pay attention to the support near the April low.

The US dollar index has a short range of 99.40-50, with a defense of 5 US dollars, a target of 98.70 (focus on the 98 area after breaking down)

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline last Friday. The price rose to the highest point of 3322.56 on the same day, and the lowest point fell to 3271.48 on the spot, closing at 3290.92. In view of the price of gold falling under pressure during the early trading session last Friday, then the price fell to the daily support during the US trading session, and then fluctuated and rose overnight. From the final daily and weekly lines, the price ended with a big negative end. In the medium term, we need to pay attention to the gains and losses of the weekly watershed in the future. In the band, we should also pay attention to the gains and losses of the daily watershed in the wave.

From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3190 area. So from the mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. The price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise, and the price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support. From the daily level, the daily level is currently supported in the 3282 area. This position is the key to the trend of the gold band. Due to the recent upward breakthrough, the price has been retracement many times and finally closed above the daily support. Therefore, the gains and losses of the daily support are still the key. Before the break, the band is temporarily long. Only after the daily closing is below the key position can we further see the pressure. From the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the 3295 regional support for the time being. This position determines the strength of the short-term trend. At present, conservatives can rely on the daily support to look upward. The four-hour position is currently ignored. After all, the price has continued to consolidate up and down at the key position of the four-hour period recently. According to the trend line, the price is currently maintained in the triangle oscillation and contraction range, and the subsequent price will only continue after breaking the range.

Gold has a large range of 3280-3282, defense is 3270, target is 3320

Europe and America

In terms of Europe and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States generally showed a decline last Friday. The price fell to 1.1312 on the day, and rose to 1.1389 on the spot and closed at 1.1346 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets last Friday, prices fluctuated first in the short term during the early trading session, and then under pressure to test the four-hour support position. The time point was reached in the US market. After that, the price maintained its upward performance, and the final closing was still a big negative end. From the weekly perspective, the price also ended with a negative cross. In the future, we need to focus on the gains and losses of daily support.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1150 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance on May 19, and at the same time it fell back and pulled up last Thursday, indicating that there are still many above the daily support. At present, the daily line is temporarily focused on the 1.1290 area, and the price is maintained at this position. From the short-term four-hour level, the price was under pressure last Friday and tested the four-hour support again and stopped rising, so the current price is still biased towards long positions. The position is temporarily focused on the 1.1330 regional support, so the current price should be maintained above the four-hour 1.1330 and the daily support 1.1290. Only after the downward break will it be subject to pressure and correct.

Europe and the United States have a long range of 1.1300-10, with a defense of 50 points, and a target of 1.1360-1.1420

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Monday, June 2, 2025

①07:30 Japan's April unemployment rate

②15:00 Switzerland's May KOF economic leading indicator

③20:00 Germany's May CPI monthly rate initial value

④20:30 Canada's March GDP monthly rate

⑤20:30 United States April core PCE price index annual rate

⑥20 :30 US Core PCE Price Index Monthly Rate in April

⑦20:30 US Personal Expenditure Monthly Rate in April

⑧21:45 US Chicago PMI in May

⑨22:00 US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final Value

⑩22:00 US May One-year inflation rate expected final value

The next day 01:00 US to the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to May 30

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